UPDATE: An interesting take on all this by Marc Champion – does Vladimir Putin in fact want a deal?

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Today I watched online most of the three hours of Vladimir Putin addressing a huge media throng in Moscow. Here’s my thoughts as given to the Daily Telegraph:

What he in fact gave us was a rambling but more or less balanced Micawberish ploy to buy time. President Putin insisted that in a couple of year’s time Russia’s economy would be back on track for good growth, with “life itself” helping Russia take much-needed tough decisions to diversify its economy. He talked up market mechanisms as the right way to proceed, albeit with far too many musty, needy exhortations of reforms that “had” to happen to be convincing. His headline-catching invitation to meet oil oligarch Vladimir Yevtushenkov showed that his own instincts for running Russia are still all about private power-deals, not building a society run by open rules.

On the foreign policy front President Putin made the familiar claims that Western partners never listen to Russia, and that Russia is merely defending its reasonable national interests in the face of Nato “expansion”. In one bizarre but revealing passage he said that Western governments did not merely want the Russian bear to sit quietly eating honey: they were bent on taking away its claws and fangs and leaving it stuffed. He slyly hinted at sundry conspiracies (eg by the USA and Saudi Arabia to depress the oil price to hurt Russia), but repeated that he looked for political solutions in Ukraine in pragmatic partnership with others.

In short, President Putin clearly had an eye on market reactions and made sure that his overall tone was firm, confident but broadly responsible and non-confrontational.

Even though some experts say that Russia’s economic “fundamentals” are now undervalued, it’s not easy to see why this steady-as-she-goes Putin presentation should restore Russia’s economic policy credibility. There are just too many real-life problems begetting new problems. Russia’s huge corporations are struggling to finance their operations and pay back foreign debts. Russia’s own banks are unsure how far to trust each other, so lending costs are soaring. Russia has big reserves, but it’s spending them. Today as President Putin spoke, news came that more big Western companies are suspending sales to Russia.

Western governments and the world’s financial markets are likely to see this marathon press conference as Kremlin strategic improvisation, which, given the dynamic problems Russia now faces, looks like indecision, insincerity or simply incompetence. Above all, the President offered no obvious way to start to get quickly into a virtuous cycle of improvements on the ground in Ukraine leading to parallel easing of sanctions.

It all boils down to that eternal key factor of diplomacy: psychology. How to restore trust once it is lost? When a relationship falters, who moves first to make amends? In particular, how do Western governments and President Putin alike now move to different, calmer positions that respect key positions of principle on both sides but explore creative options for pragmatic win-win outcomes? Today’s dreary press conference did not help find answers.

The format of these marathon events is interesting if (after a while) wearying. After a short introduction by President Putin (this time mainly on the economic situation) he takes questions of all shapes and sizes. Some were trivial or sycophantic or both. Others sharp and to the point. He mostly opined on the general issues raised by the question as he saw them, rather than strictly answering the question as such. Usually the journalists putting the question made his life easier by not asking short, direct questions that aimed to smoke out clear answers, instead trying to show off or making their questions too ‘involved’.

My piece has produced the usual stream of malevolent or cantankerous or occasionally sensible comments:

The USA and the EU are determined to unseat Mr Putin, the most popular , democratically elected leader in the world ever. The Russian people are more fond of him today than ever. The vested interests are trying to destabilise Russia via Ukraine and oil and gas is behind it. Corrupt practice and lying poodle politicians, here and abroad, aided by the useful idiots in the so-called free press

Rubbish ‘Russian Bear’ wisdom No.3. The bear may tolerate the squirrel, but squirrel must remember he looks like Andrex when bear has done his business

What aggression is that? I don’t see any sign that Russia has designs on the former Soviet states … except in the pages of the DT and in the minds of Russophobes.

I didn’t watch all of Putin’s talk but from what I saw I was amazed he got away with it. It was all opinion and assertion. Any idiot can make assertions. There were no facts. Why has none of the media questioned him in detail? Simple example. Putin thinks the crisis in Russia will be over in two years or less. What does he think is the crisis and why does he think it will be over so soon?

you obviously didn’t watch it properly you idiot. The Russian central bank have announced all their moves an Putin has signed all the nuclear power plant and reactor deals with Turkey,South Africa and India and hundreds of billions worth of trade with China,India and Turkey

Russia has an excellent and much freer media than US/UK as shown today and each annual conference

Excellent analysis so long as Mr. Putin is playing our game badly, rather than his own game rather well. I am still inclined to accept the former, but worry that if this is so, then why did he make those big mistakes to begin with

Western countries are in a multi-cultural morass. Putin is an outstanding leader who will drag Russia out of centuries of malign dictatorship. Westerners want a ‘Putin’ but they ain’t got one. Therefore they abuse him. The future is Russia, China, Japan, Korea.
Western countries can’t stop themselves going the way of ancient Athens and Rome. Sad. I mean just look at them !! They don’t know what the heck they are ! They are nothing.

The way that the western “press” has lined up so quickly and obediently behind the anti-russia, pro-central banker propaganda evident in the story above gives us an excellent insight into the fact that the western “press” and the establishment western political machine are one and the same

Crawford is just a Brilliant Example, of how low standards have fallen since my uncle used to do the job.

Crawford is obviously a firm believer in spinning the same lie often enough in hopes for it to eventually appear to be the truth

As usual the comments are more informative than the article. thank you gentlemen

Fair enough.