How far is it reasonable to expect diplomats to predict radical developments in their host countries?

And what if they do predict them wisely and well - but no-one back home wants to listen?

The full gory story is in the latest issue of DIPLOMAT:

There are less dramatic examples. For many months, opinion polls for the 2005 Polish parliamentary elections pointed to a clear victory for the Civic Platform party and then a coalition with the Law and Justice party. As Ambassador I dutifully informed London to expect this outcome – what could happen to stop it?

Yet in the final days of the campaign, Law and Justice closed the gap and won the election. The planned coalition promptly collapsed. I sent a telegram to London reporting that every prediction I had made for the previous nine months about Polish politics had been completely and utterly wrong. London did not mind too much.

Diplomatic predictions?

If you get them right, you’re a hero. If you get them wrong, quickly blame it on inconsiderate and inconsistent foreigners.