The more the government tries to change our behaviour to address ‘climate change’, the less the UK public incline to believe them.

Funny, that.

It of course all depends on the precise questions being asked.

Does human activity have an impact on the planet?  Of course.

Is it easy to measure that impact?  To a degree yes, but only over the relatively short term.

Does the climate change naturally anyway?  Of course. It would be impossible to imagine a world in which it didn’t. It probably would be dead.

So how do we measure what changes are caused by Man, and which are occurring anyway?  Ah, now you’re talking. Very difficult, the more so if you look at longer timescales.

If it turns out that human activity is affecting the planet, are the effects good or bad?  Some must be bad (eg if we eat every fish, no more fish). But again, it depends on what timescale you choose to use – what is Bad over (say) a century may turn out to be Good over a longer period. Thus the Industrial Revolution poured out nasty pollution (and still does) but it opened the way to far more economical use of natural resources now and into the future.

Is it better to act now to stop future bad outcomes?  This is the heart of it. We can’t be sure what will be bad outcomes and what will be good ones. So it may well not be wise to overinvest now in vast inflexible and expensive schemes to ‘prevent’ climate change. Better (in my view) to spend money as we go, adapting to the effects of changes as they unfold over time.

So are you saying do nothing now?!  No. Energy-saving ideas and generally being less wasteful look to make sense. There will be a role for government in advancing those. But the main impetus must come from market forces and human ingenuity. Where else? Huge collectivist schemes are unlikely to be wise or sustainable in terms of popular support – we just do not know enough about Cause and Effect over the timescales concerned.

But what about all the scientific evidence?  Hmm. In the past thirty years ‘scientists’ have veered between warning of a new Ice Age to warning about Global Warming to (now) warning about Climate Change in any and all directions. Not very persuasive? 

Don’t you care about future generations?  I do care about them, often. Some of them live in my house and demand pocket money. But one way to care about them is not to lumber them with huge debts and stupid policies brought about by our current ignorance and hubris. Look at it this way. Which scientific innovations or other trends/developments would you have stopped in 1909 to make things better now? And how would you have been sure that you hit the right ones then? Why should poorer people in 1909 have subsidised far richer people in 2009? Why should poor people in 2009 subsidise far richer people in 2109, or 2209?

Bottom Line?  Steady as she goes. Bet on the wisdom of people, not on the dogmatic certainty of governments. Because it is just not clear what to do for the best. And governments will make a far bigger mess if they get that wrong.