The 2010 Presidential elections in Poland, brought forward following the Smolensk air disaster in which President Lech Kaczynski died, have been taking place today.

The results indicate that as expected Bronislaw Komorowski of the Citizens Platform party has won a clear victory over Jaroslaw Kaczynski (Law and Justice) with Grzegorz Napieralski (Democratic Left Alliance) making a respectable showing in third place after some good TV performances. The final results may show the gap between the two front-runners narrowing as rural votes favouring Kaczynski get counted.

As no candidate won a 50% + 1 share of the vote, Poland now sees a second round run-off in two weeks’ time between Komorowski and Kaczynski.

Komorowski has had a largely undistinguished election campaign but has maintained his lead over Kaczynski, who did quite well in toning down his previously truculent image and playing deftly to try to win the post-disaster sympathy and national unity vote.

A central part of the Kaczynski twins’ appeal for the past twenty years has been their strident insistence that Poland’s former communists have been given too many privileges and still manipulate politics excessively. This suggests that the centre left Napieralski votes now up for grabs in the run-off vote will not easily move to Kaczynski, even if the Kaczynski rhetoric likes to emphasise ‘social’ concerns and the supposed elitism of the urban Citizens Platform leadership.

That said, Kaczynski voters are likely to be more motivated in the run-off process, so the expected lower turn-out will tend to favour Kaczysnki. And Poles will see force in the Kaczynski argument that it is in Poland’s interests not to let one party (Citizens Platform) control both government and Presidency.

So while Komorowski is the clear favourite, he will have to work hard to win. He lacks glamour and makes strange gaffes, although he also has no special unpopularity. He will be brooding on the 2005 result when Donald Tusk likewise had a first-round lead but was overhauled by Lech Kaczynski who presented better in the TV debates. Maybe the tensions at high levels in the European Union favours Komorowski somewhat, as his party present themselves as much more credible in making an impact for Poland in EU circles.

My bet this evening? Komorowski to edge home in two weeks’ time, something like 53% – 47%.

Which in the circumstances will have been an excellent result for Jaroslaw Kaczynski. But do not rule out a Kaczynski win just yet.

Update:  the early polls published after the close of polling underestimated the Kaczynski performance by over-estimating the Komorowski result.

With most results in, it now looks as if Komorowski has secured only 41% against 37% for Kaczynski, a result which gives Kaczynski a respectable chance to win the run-off.