Just back from being interviewed by BBC TV for the News at 2200 tonight (and for the BBC News Channel) on the Libyan drama, and in particular what options exist for Western policy-makers.

The BBC had picked up my piece here yesterday giving a range of policy options. My formal claim to fame was that I had led the FCO effort to support the Serbian democratic opposition and topple Slobodan Milosevic.

The points I tried to get across (and what exactly will be used depends on BBC editing, so goodness knows what if anything will emerge to a startled public later this evening) were roughly as follows:

  • many different options were available, depending on what we wanted to do – sending in messages to key regime supporters was one thing, sending in weapons to help the opposition quite another
  • Libya was totally different from Serbia – unfolding very fast and collapsing from within
  • the UNSC resolution had sent an impressive signal of global unity against Gaddafi – even if the sanctions themselves made not too much immediate difference, the fact that Russia and China had agreed to anything concrete was a heavy blow against the Libyan regime
  • again, the UNSC reference to the International Criminal Court would focus the minds of the mercenaries, even if any eventual proceedings would drag on for many years (see ICTY)
  • asset freezing sounded good, but as we knew from searching for Milosevic’s money any leader stealing billions could afford to spend many millions in covering his/her traces and a few more millions on throwing up an expensive legal smokescreen
  • it also depended on how far if at all we wanted to get public credit for helping. It could easily make things worse if we were seen to be ‘intervening’ aggressively, thereby allowing Gaddafi to use that fact to mobilise his dwindling supporters
  • the Libyan people themselves had accepted this brutal national socialist regime for 40 years – they needed to enjoy the full responsibility – and pride and success – in ending it at long last
  • it was good news that the Gaddafi ship was sinking and assorted rats were leaving it – but it would not be a good outcome if the rats ended up controlling the next ship
  • message to David Cameron? Be bold, but be smart. And engage with the Libyan community in the UK, as they could help fine-tune policy at this critical time

World media! You have here one of the leading global diplomatic experts in successfully toppling dictators. If you want to use me, here’s the link.