Russia chooses a new President tomorrow, 2 March.

Without OSCE observers.

When did Russia’s leadership start to tip away from seeing European Democracy as the Solution, towards seeing it as a Problem?

Maybe around 6 May 1996. In the UK it was a Bank Holiday Monday morning; we expected a normal working day in Moscow. 

A call from the MFA in an oddly strangled voice reached me at the Embassy, insisting that the Ambassador immediately come to the MFA to meet Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister. HE Sir Andrew Wood and I got in the car to comply. As we drove out from the Embassy courtyard a conspicuous untouristlike tough in a leather jacket was near the gate videotaping our departure. When we reached the MFA there was another one, capturing our arrival. Hmm.

The meeting started. To our shared amazement we were given a list of nine Embassy colleagues who, we were sternly told, had to leave Russia within two weeks on the grounds that they had been caught spying. And in classic Russian retro-style the Minister added "And it can not be excluded that the media will get to hear about this development…" (Translator’s Note: Soviet-speak for "the photocopiers in the MFA basement are glowing red-hot as we run off press briefing".) 

Thus was a sharp Russian stick thrust deep into the thitherto placid anthill of the British Embassy.

The consequent meeting at the Embassy when the Ambassador told the nine colleagues concerned what had happened – and that their lives suddenly were turning upside down – is etched in my memory and no doubt their’s too.

This vivid episode occurred in the faraway date of 3 BG (Before Google) so it is not easy now to trace the ensuing media reporting of the diplomatic furore that ensued. Suffice now to say that the press reported that we opened the match 0-9 down and ended with a 4-4 draw.

Despite that bilateral drama of considerable proprtions, Russia and its Western partners (as we all called ourselves then) continued to work well enough in pushing forward the Bosnia peace process. Vladimir Chizhov (later himself Deputy Foreign Minister) did outstanding work in Sarajevo as a deputy to High Representative Carl Bildt in a united and purposeful international team.

But as Bosnia settled down and Kosovo and other issues came to the fore, Russia’s enthusiasm for being in such a team (and the other team members’ enthusiasm for trying to coordinate policy with them) ebbed away.

Russia’s 1999 attempted powerplay at Pristina airport looked like a bold unilateral move to repeat Russia’s dramatic and not unsuccessful move in Sarajevo in 1994. But it ended poorly from the Russians’ point of view. The deployment was denied overflight support by neighbouring countries and soon started to run out of supplies. Plus there was no coherent policy follow-up. Russian forces finally left Kosovo and KFOR in July 2003.

This curious airport episode is remembered for the fact that WW3 was averted after an unprecedented stand-off between NATO Supreme Commander General Wes Clark and the UK’s General Sir Mike Jackson. Phew.

Why has Russia given up on closely working with Western governments on Balkans issues?

Partly because they disagree on the substance. Kosovo does set tricky if ambiguous precedents, whatever we say to the contrary.

Partly because the US Administration has pushed Kosovo independence so consistently in the face of Russian objections; Putin’s team feel instinctively more comfortable identifying a US lead, and doing the opposite.

And partly because we have used poor arguments with the Russians ("Look, we all know the the Serbs have blown it. Kosovo’s independence is inevitable – join the winning side!"). The Russians just do not like Western Governments lecturing them as to what is in Russia’s best interests.

So the elections tomorrow as Putin steps down – or at least aside – mark a new phase. What for me is even more depressing than the disagreements we now have with the Russians bilaterally and more widely is the neo-Soviet tone official Moscow now often resorts to: see eg this vile commentary suggesting that the Serbia’s Prime Minister Djindjic had deserved to be assassinated. Dare we hope for a change for the better under a new president?

Back in Moscow in 1994 I sat in on a meeting of EU Ambassadors. The discussion turned philosophical.

One Excellency opined, "Russia is too communist, too Asian, too big, too repressive. Russia will always be on the edge of Europe." 

The German Ambassador quickly shot back. "Europe will always be on the edge of Russia!"

Were they both right?