My observations on Poland’s Diplomatic Ball were picked up by Bartosz Weglarczyk’s fine blog in Poland and have raised an eyebrow or two.

(Note to non-Polish speakers: every time you see a Z in a Polish text, remember that it serves much the same function as an H in English. Thus cz = ch, and sz = sh. Except when it doesn’t. Not much help, but you won’t be quite so appalled.)

The basic professional technique question, of course, is how best to react to nasty surprises.

Perhaps the most astounding surprise ever was the crashing of those aircraft into the World Trade Centre on 11 September 2001. President Bush’s immediate reaction as he heard the news was subsequently ridiculed. But there is no text-book technique either for staff advising leaders in such a crisis, or for those leaders calibrating on the spur of the moment a convincing/strong/wise response in front of live TV cameras.

That said, in general the best way to deal with a surprise is not to show that one is surprised.

But be careful. Too much studied nonchalance will give rise to insane conspiracy theories that you knew about the ‘surprise’ in advance – and probably even planned it!

One solid technique is to make clear that this new turns of affairs indeed was quite unexpected and, from what you can gather at this early stage, a [insert adjective] event to which you [and the nation] will react appropriately as the full facts emerge.

Then add that, of course, the nation’s excellent emergency services are tasked and trained precisely for such surprises; you will do everything possible to ensure that they get the support they need at this critical moment and in the days to come.

Then depart in a calm but purposeful, leaderly way to get on with leading.

In short, project a message of "Yes, terrible things happen unexpectedly – but we’re ready for them".

Another, trickier approach is to note that others may have been taken by surprise but try to sell the thought that you were not: "well, of course, we did see this coming…"

My favourite example of this was the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the ensuing unification of Germany.

Back in the FCO Planning Staff in mid-1987 my youthful colleague Mariot Leslie – still very much in business but now rather grand – dashed off a short paper saying that East Germany might join West Germany much sooner and more abruptly than anyone expected.

The FCO (and I) chortled loudly. OK, Gorby was a big improvement on his awful predecessors, but it made no sense to expect any Soviet leadership to let that happen. Sorry, Mariot, file that one on a high dusty shelf.

Yet a mere 120 weeks later, it happened.

And among those people thinking about it all, Mariot’s brilliant paper rose phoenix-like to eternal glory.