A neat summing up of attitudes round the region as Macedonia and Montenegro recognise Kosovo.

Key argument:

It also helps that Montenegro supported a Serbian initiative in the UN seeking a ruling by the International Court of Justice on Kosovo’s February independence declaration. The General Assembly adopted that resolution on October 8, in a move that Belgrade heralded as a great diplomatic victory. Macedonia abstained. All of these moves by Montenegro and Macedonia should help restrain Serbia’s reaction.

Another positive sign — one coming from Serbia itself — is even more important. It would appear that Belgrade has made a decision to limit its challenges to Kosovar independence to legal, political, and diplomatic means.

That Serbia — with its long history to the contrary — has given up violence as its main tool of international relations is important to note. Some might cynically argue that Serbia is worn out by all the conflicts it has lost over the last 20 years. But the real reason is that today’s Serbia is much different from the Serbia of just six months ago and, of course, incomparable to the Serbia of Slobodan Milosevic’s day.

Plus this:

It is also important to note that Russia’s military intervention in Georgia and its hasty recognition of the breakaway Georgia regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have dramatically weakened Serbia’s hand regarding Kosovo. Three countries — Portugal is the third — have recognized Kosovo in the last week and more will follow soon.

Why has the Russia/Georgia intervention weakened Serbia’s hand? Not made clear.

Maybe the point is that before that intervention Russia could make a credible claim to upholding a core international law principle, whereas after the intervention the Russian position looked utterly self-serving if not malicious?

Hence others who found it comfortable to hide behind Principle now see that cover shrinking, so prefer to tip-toe for safety behind Realism?

Forlorn hope at the end:

Now the only former Yugoslav countries that have not recognized Kosovo are Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, and it will be some time yet before Sarajevo takes this step.

But Kosovo is now firmly a reality in the Balkans, and reality always prevails sooner or later. Maybe Bosnia and Serbia will be the next pair of Balkan countries to recognize Kosovo. Or would that just be too much good news for a region like the Balkans.

Nothing will happen on this front until the ICJ issues its advisory opinion. And, depending on what that opinion opines, maybe not for a long time thereafter.