Here is the UK election exit poll as published at 2200 last night:

10.00pm: Here is the exit poll:

Conservatives: 307 seats

Labour:            255

Lib Dems:         59

BBC and chattering class consternation!

This can’t be right. The Lib Dems have … bombed?!?

The final result (almost):

Party Predicted seats Seats Change Vote %
Conservative

305 +97 36.1
Labour

258 -91 29.1
Liberal Democrat

57 -5 23.0

 

  • 648 of 650 seats declared

Fascinating to us non-statisticians to see how even in such complex circumstances, with different local swings and quirky ad hoc results around the country, an overall pattern emerges.

And that remarkably accurate results can be gleaned from what looks to the untrained eye as such a small sample.

The UK system is well researched, so not only is it clear who wins what overall with which ‘swing’, the precise seats which are likely to be won is obvious.

Note from that list that some quirky wins well beyond the expected range of Conservative wins were balanced by non-wins in some places where the Conservatives had been almost sure – hence the uncanny exactitude of the exit poll’s aggregations.

As for the election coverage, what was the point (and the cost) of helicopters following the party leaders’ cars?