Two weeks ago I made my prediction about the Polish Presidential elections:

My bet this evening? Komorowski to edge home in two weeks’ time, something like 53% – 47%

Earlier today it looked as if Kaczynski might have squeaked home, but that bet looks more or less to be the final result. Jaroslaw Kaczynski has conceded defeat on the basis of the exit polls. The gap between the two candidates may narrow somewhat as the votes are counted, but not enough to allow Kaczynski to win.

Kaczynski did very well to close the gap to this extent, and his Law and Justice Party are well placed now to consolidate their position as the leading opposition grouping, or even actually win the next Parliamentary elections.

As for Bronislaw Komorowski, he will have to show some guile in leading Poland without seeming the prisoner of Citizens Platform, the governing party. PM Donald Tusk has been able to blame former President Kaczynski for blocking various reforms – now he’ll have to take more responsibility for specific political outcomes.

It will be interesting to see whether Radek Sikorski survives as Foreign Minister. Some muttering is heard that Komorowski may prefer him shunted back to the Defence Ministry with eg former communist turned wily independent-minded social democrat Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz replacing him, as a gesture to the centre left.

In any case, well done Poland for managing the Smolensk disaster and its painful political aftermath with such dignity and attention to due process.

Both Kaczynski and Komorowski have campaigned honourably and well. A model of how modern democracy should work, acting as both a source of national stability – and a moral value in itself.