PM David Cameron made an important statement to Parliament about the latest EU Summit. Full text here (written it must be said in commendably clear language).
Though you’d never guess from our snow-infested news bulletins, this was a really important gathering from which, by the usual standards of such gatherings, the UK looks to have emerged in a strong position.
First and foremost, the countries in the Eurozone are scrambling to find a way to solve the Zone’s problems in a way which does not leave the UK formally entangled in either the substance or the changes to EU treaties needed to set up new mechanisms.
Of course the UK is embroiled in all that anyway, as so many UK-based banks have exposure in Eurozone countries. An uncontrolled crash of the Eurozone might fleetingly amuse some UK Eurosceptic websites and commentators in a "we-told-you-so" sort of way, but it could also unleash a financial and social tsunami of damaging other consequences.
So it makes sense for the UK to stand aside and let the EU treaty changes (as applicable to Eurozone countries only) go through, just in case they do work and help calm things down. Not that that looks probable, as sovereign debt problems steadily escalate with no end in sight (except a bad end):
Jacques Cailloux, chief Europe economist at RBS, agreed that last week’s European summit had failed to grasp the nettle.
"None of the policy responses put in place in Europe since the start of the crisis provides a credible backstop to prevent further contagion," Mr Cailloux said.
"We remain most concerned about an escalation of the sovereign debt crisis hitting larger economies in the euro area. Markets continue to underestimate the potential disruption via financial transmission channels that such an event could trigger."
Second, the fact that the UK and France and Germany – the three biggest Givers – have joined together to call for a freeze on any increase in the EU Budget in the new Financial Perspective period (2014-2020) is also excellent news.
Here is my recent definitive account of how the EU Budget process works. The über-point is that very few EU countries (and above all the UK/France/Germany) pay more into the common pot than they get. So when the Big Three line up and say that the budget is not going to increase by much if at all ("a real-terms freeze"), that counts for something significant.
(Note: just to add the irritating and unhelpful gloss that identifying what is or is not a budget freeze or a budget ‘cut’ is not quite as easy as you might think. Still, a ‘freeze in real terms’ is pretty specific – and in the right Scrooge-like direction.)
This initiative is bad news for eg the Poles, who as the EU’s largest net recipients will have been hoping for a Lot More. But if the Poles are smart, they’ll see that it is unrealistic if not immoral to expect much more from hard-pressed net Givers in the next decade. They should concentrate instead on attacking waste in EU budget processes as represented by a lot of CAP spending and the colossal communist-like propaganda banners dangling down the side of the Commission building in Brussels proclaiming the Year of European Volunteering or some such inanity.
Not easy for the Poles to do this, of course, as they are slowly but surely getting hooked on CAP payments themselves. In any case, the Poles need not complain too much – they’ll continue to get generous support from the Givers for much of the next ten years, probably at something like the current levels.
Meanwhile the French will be delighted, since they’ll believe that their practical chances of giving a Gallic shrug and clinging on to their CAP loot for a few years more will be improved if the Budget does not grow. Plus they’ll shamelessly egg on the Poles to blame the Brits for this perfidious London-driven Giver selfishness.
The Germans will be less delighted as they hate being portrayed as selfish, but they know that any spare money will have to be used to help the Eurozone, not frittered away in EU processes.
All in all, some far-reaching decisions were taken last week in Brussels, for better or worse. London has quite a strong hand in current circumstances, partly because we are not in the Eurozone and so can extract concessions from countries fearful of the Eurozone’s implosion as the price for quietly accepting more treaty changes without any UK referendum.
But quite strong hands are not always played well. This time round David Cameron has done a good job in terms of the immediate tasks, plus (more importantly) kept British powder dry for the bigger battles which will lie ahead in 2011 if the Eurozone lurches deeper into crisis…