Derek Tonkin, former British Ambassador to Thailand, Vietnam and Laos, knows a few things about that part of the world.

Hence it is good to see him helping with this lively site, Network Myanmar.

See for example this page with a long list of handy links to articles about Myanmar and other regional issues.

Here is Derek himself in the Independent arguing the case that being too tough on the successive military juntas who have run Burma/Myanmar for nearly 50 years(!) is just counterproductive:

Helping the present regime to break out of this vicious cycle will require time and patience. The generals who rule Burma have little or no experience of the outside world. To expect them to hand over power without guarantees for their personal future or the stability of the country is simply not on the cards.

Attempts by Western powers to force a transition to democracy through sanctions have been an unmitigated failure because of a simple fact: Burma’s regional neighbours have not joined in. As a result, Western countries have surrendered influence to China, Russia and other Asian countries, with nothing to show in return.

Another example of the problems to dealing with Bad Leaders who are too strong to be toppled, and too Bad to be part of any reasonable outcome.

Engaging with Bad Leaders merely empowers them against their own victims, which is why sanctions look attractive to Western do-something politicians even when said sanctions usually harm the victims more than the targeted BL(s).

OK, each situation is very different. And, of course, some Bad Leaders’ badness is deemed to be handy for our purposes, especially when their countries are heavy oil-exporters.

In Myanmar’s case, other Asian powers rally round to give effective cover to Myanmar against ‘Western’ sanctions, not because they care tuppence about Myanmar but because they want to see our manoeuvrings in their back yard thwarted.

The EU countries leading the charge on this subject including HMG have not worked out what to to about this. Supporting Nobel peace prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi looks an easier path forward than engaging with the military junta who are, hem, less photogenic:

 

Hence a dreary deadlock.

One way or the other, it is striking how no government, including our own, seems to take a thematic policy view of this central Bad Leaders problem at the heart of foreign policy?

Memo to next Government:

Get some heavyweight thinking done about how in today’s networked messy world British diplomatic weight can best be focused. What has worked where, and why? What new options present themselves?