Round at the Bruges Group last night to hear a thought-provoking Very Big Picture talk.

The argument went like this:

  • not too long ago when Communism ended in Europe there were books about the triumph of democracy, the ‘end of history’ and so on
  • now the emphasis is on Islamic fundamentalism. This is a physical danger but less obviously an ideological danger – Al Qaeda-ism is in bad human and intellectual shape (not a model for anyone) and the Iraq Surge is succeeding, with positive ripples elsewhere
  • however, we also now we see Russia reappearing and China emerging, both with obvious and unabashed authoritarian instincts
  • one advantage they seem to possess is a Confident Identity, and a sort of legitimacy with their own people flowing from that (Note: quite how true is that, I wonder?)
  • so a global ideological clash is back with us, between Democracy and Authoritarianism (Note: indeed – see that recent UNSC Zimbabwe vote)
  • in this the EU has a unique but not necessarily benevolent role as a sort of ‘post-democratic society’, an area where power and decision-making are seeping from electable/accountable people to non-elected and non-accountable people (Brussels institutions, European Court)
  • some in the USA do not mind this and quite like the idea of a Strong Europe, since otherwise Europeans (even the Brits) add very little ‘extra’ these days
  • "the EU likes to lecture potential new member states on democracy, but the EU is so undemocratic that it could not join itself" – see eg the open bullying of Ireland quickly to have another referendum and this time get the Right Answer
  • if Obama wins there will be those who try to push the USA in a more ‘European’ direction, but strong democratic instincts/arrangements will stop that going too far …

Hmm.

There is a serious question here as to where the EU stands on Democracy. The EU Project lumbers on, Liberal but not Democratic, knowing that key aspects of the project were put to referenda they would be rejected and not just in the UK.

Here in the UK the Labour Party promised us all a referendum, then broke the promise and ratified the Lisbon Treaty. The Conservatives would not have done this, but look unwilling to force the deeper issue wide open if they come to power. 

On the other hand, the fact that Poland and the likes of Estonia are now in the EU means that a much sterner EU eye has to be kept on Russian post-Soviet pronouncements and power-building.

In short, the Bruges Group speaker was right.

We are back into a global Grand Battle of Ideas.

The current British problem is that with the Labour Government in such a demoralised position and the economy wobbling, we now have nothing especially coherent to say – or much credibility when we mumble it.