The text of the Libya UNSCR is here. Key point as Sir J Greenstock has just pointed out on Radio Four is this (emphasis added):

Authorizes Member States that have notified the Secretary-General, acting nationally or through regional organizations or arrangements, and acting in cooperation with the Secretary-General, to take all necessary measures, notwithstanding paragraph 9 of resolution 1970 (2011), to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory

The last phrase is oddly written. Does it rule out any foreign occupation forces? Or does it only authorise those member states who have notified the Secretary-General to ‘exclude’ any foreign occupation force? Not the same thing.

Nor does it rule out some sort of ground force invasion which is not an ‘occupation force’. Curious.

The key thing to understand in all this excitement is that we are seeing a highly complex yet very simple negotiation.

The world is saying to Gaddafi "enough is enough". The fact that Russia and China did not veto something quite as broad as this is itself significant. They too have concluded that Gaddafi is out of line (plus they did not want to end up backing a loser if Western action led to his Gaddafi’s speedy downfall)..

BUT…

But…

Now what?

Will Gaddafi lunge at Benghazi? Maybe, or maybe not. He now has a brand new option: to become (again) the Skunk Who Came In From The Cold.

He can set about increasing his military capability near Benghazi while offering to accept (say) Turkish and/or Indian mediation. A move like that would keep most of his options open but also give him a clear route towards staying in power for a good time to come, ducking and weaving – but clinging on. A mediation process is great for peace, but it’s also great for legitimising existing power relationships and the personalities involved in it. 

If the ‘rebels’ try to drive back his forces, he can hit back in a measured way, just enough to keep the situation wobbling. International air-strikes against him (with the inevitable hit on a passing wedding party) may start to mobilise Libyans in his favour, the more so if they think that the ‘international community’ is not brave enough to get stuck in to topple Gaddafi.

Another option is a de facto partition of Libya into East and West – another way for Gaddafi to reboot his legitimacy, albeit on a smaller patch of land.

Against that is the possibility that the Libyan anti-Gaddafi tendency will be emboldened again and make new gains. It all gets very tough.

And so on.

In other words, a fascinating new phase opens. As we saw with Milosevic, a wily Bad Leader constantly doing the unexpected is a tough adversary to beat, the more so as all sorts of people and countries will be keen to profit from the confusion and will want it to last.

All of which said, this UNSCR is a bold move forward on R2P – Responsibility to Protect. See this earlier piece on what that one is all about.

Whatever one thinks about the politics and interests involved and Western/Obama dithering, it just can’t be right to sit back and let a man who has been in power for 40 years and who has looted the country’s wealth murder hundreds or thousands of people to keep his ghastly rule staggering on.

We’d intervene to stop a LibDem candidate battering his cat to death with a walking-stick. We must intervene – ‘do something’ – to stop Gaddafi doing something millions of times worse. Good precedent for civilisation. 

The core negotiating message is clear. Gaddafi himself will start to wonder about that strange new droning noise above his encampment and be a lot more careful.  

Well done PM Cameron and W Hague for getting this basic one right, for all the new perils and complications – and mistakes – we’ll now see.