The adoption late yesterday by the Serbia National Assembly (Narodna Skupstina) of a Declaration on the 1995 Srebrenica massacre in eastern Bosnia has been hitting the headlines. See eg the BBC. And RFE/RL.

The EU has welcomed the move. Others in the region including various Serb liberals have strongly criticised it for not using the word ‘genocide’. During the Assembly debate it was attacked from the opposite angle, for giving a damaging and tendentious version of history which in effect blamed Serbs and Serbia for the Balkans conflict.

In Republika Srpska likewise the Declaration has been condemned:

Many Bosnian Serbs say their community also suffered from war crimes committed by Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats.

Among them is Slavko Jovicic, a member of the Bosnian parliament from the People’s Social Democratic Party of Republika Srpska’s Prime Minister Milorad Dodik. Jovicic says that the draft resolution actually exacerbates tensions in the Balkans instead of moving the region toward reconciliation.

"I have the right to say openly, on behalf of the victims from my people, that as long as I am here — and I hope other colleagues, too — that this cannot be adopted. That is not possible," Jovicic says. "I know from numerous contacts with voters in Republika Srpska what they have told me. Even if another 15 years pass, maybe another parliament will have more strength and maybe some new truth will come out that will bring our positions closer. I am certain that we will not achieve peace [by adopting this resolution]. We are going toward new conflicts and confrontations of an unforeseeable magnitude."

Oddly enough (or not), few if any of the news reports link to a text of the Declaration so readers can see for themselves exactly what was passed. Because as always much of the interest and deeper ‘messages’ lie in the detail.

So I have done the media’s work and tracked down the actual Declaration deep in the website of the Skupstina itself. A good chance for everyone to practise reading Cyrillic.

As far as I can see, this is the text as it passed. Let me know if I am wrong.

Thus…

The Declaration preamble recalls various key international law norms and agreements, including the Genocide Convention and the Statute of the International Criminal Court.

It proclaims the aim of promoting peace and stability and friendly relations in the Western Balkans based on international law and the "territorial integrity of all state members of the United Nations, including Bosnia and Herzegovina" (Note: deft wording aimed at restating Serbia’s claim over Kosovo and not accepting Kosovo’s territorial integrity, as Kosovo is not a UN member. Also reminding Republika Srpska and Sarajevo alike that Belgrade does not support Bosnia’s division).

The preamble respects the judgement of the ICJ in February 2007 in the case brought against Serbia by Bosnia and Herzegovina (Note: a good outcome for Serbia in the circumstances. The ICJ held that Serbia had not committed genocide at Srebrenica – an act of genocide had been committed by Republika Srpska forces – but that Serbia had not done enough to prevent it happening).

And the preamble notes that under the ICJ judgement Serbia has to cooperate fully with ICTY (Note: a good signal that Serbia accepts that ICTY must be satisfied that Serbia has done everything possible eg to arrest Mladic).

Then the substantive declaration, cast in somewhat convoluted Serbian prose (summary):

The Assembly in the sharpest terms condemns the crime committed on the Bosniac inhabitants of Srebrenica "in the way confirmed by the judgement of the ICJ", as well as all the social and political processes which created the consciousness that achieving one’s own national aims can be done through using force against people of other nations and religions, above all expressing condolences and apology to the families of the victims that not everything was done to prevent this tragedy.

The Assembly fully supports the state bodies working on processing war crimes and successfully concluding cooperation with ICTY, particularly the importance of finding and arresting Ratko Mladic to go for trial at ICTY.

The Assembly calls on all former warring parties in Bosnia and in former Yugoslavia to continue with reconciliation and respect the equality of nations and human and minority rights so that no further crimes will happen.

The Assembly has the expectation that other states of former Yugosalvia likewise will condemn crimes against Serbs and express condolences and an apology to the families of Serb victims.

Conclusion?

Pretty good in the circumstances. In fact, I’d say just Good.

These things are always going to be an uneasy political balancing act (in this case both within Serbia and between Serbia and different neighbours). In this case the majority of Serbia MPs agreed enough substance cast in a positive rancour-free moderate tone to be convincing.

That said, the fact that it was such a struggle to get the Declaration through the Assembly shows that a hefty proportion of Serbia’s political elite (and society) does not accept the moral and political premise for the Declaration, and/or the way/fact it was adopted. That allows inevitable scope to those who insist that Serbia is being insincere or devious in expressing any apology, however fulsome.

In any case, as I said to a senior Serbia diplomat yesterday the hard fact remains that until Mladic is arrested and sent on his way to ICTY, Serbia does not look as if it is coming to the issue with clean hands.

The corollary is also true. Once Mladic is arrested and sent to ICTY (if he does not shoot himself in the back with a machine gun resisting arrest) Serbia should find the way open to regain a new leadership role in the region – and start to make up fast for all the time lost ducking and weaving on the war crimes issue since Milosevic fell in 2000.

Progress. Let’s see how other Assemblies in the region respond, or not.