More haggling over the 2011 EU Budget.

Key point to remember. If there is no agreement in December, the EU 2011 budget stays at the level of the 2010 budget.

Hurrah?

Yes and no.

Since money has been committed to various EU schemes during this 2005/13 Financial Perspective period, some of the promised cash will have to be paid in 2012 if not in 2011. Indeed, an absence of a budget deal now maybe makes a larger embarrassing % rise in 2012 more likely?

Or not. Parts of the EU budget can be cut or deferred or just not drawn down. So the absence of a budget deal now will lead to slower spending on the margins in the coming couple of years. Every little helps.

But don’t get too worked up about this. It’s the next huge Financial Perspective negotiation for the period 2013/2020 which really counts, as it sets the spending ceiling for that whole period and involves the ever-fascinating subject of the magnificent UK Rebate.

That circus starts later next year. Look out for the usual frenzied noise from the EU Getters as they pretend that the EU Givers are being mean-spirited.

The EU Givers this time round will be hell-bent on ‘financial consolidation’, ie sorting out their national public finances in the teeth of public opposition. Increases for the EU pot will be hard to sell at home, if not simply wrong in principle. 

My long trail-blazing analysis of all this is likely to emerge soon. Watch this space.