When Bad Leaders finally realise that their hold on power is slipping (as looks to be the case in Zimbabwe), various things happen.

The ‘mood’ abruptly changes, from Maybe This Time We Can Bring Him Down to When He Goes…

The immediate entourage round the Bad Leader are affected. Some know that they have behaved so badly that they have no chance to cutting a deal with the next government, or otherwise staying in political business for the foreseeable future. Their main concern is how to keep most of their ill-gotten gains.

Others may think that if they help cut a deal with the newly emboldened opposition and pretend to show some contrition, they can hope to minimise their personal losses by being ‘statesmanlike’ and ‘patriotic’.

Meanwhile outside powers (if they are smart) stay studiously calm and aloof, so as to avoid giving the Bad Leader an excuse to launch a new crack-down by ostentatiously ‘interfering’. But behind the scenes a lot will be happening to work out how to weigh in quickly behind the next government as and when it takes power.

Hence the dire dilemma for the Bad Leader’s closest collaborators.

Do they throw the Captain overboard and make a big sharky splash in the hope of not being thrown overboard themselves?

If they do, the effect is of course dramatic. World opinion knows the names of the Bad Leader, but probably nothing at all about the gangsters who have done much of his dirty work. So when the Bad Leader flies over the railings and splashes into the water there is inevitably a sense of ‘thank goodness that’s over’.

When in fact it may not be over.

This is what happened in Serbia after Milosevic fell in 2000. A huge and excellent splash. Democrats swarmed all over the ship, dancing for joy.

But it turned out that many of the senior Milosevic crew had not jumped ship but quietly slipped below deck to bide their time and look for opportunities to sneak back into good positions or, failing that, make life very difficult for the new Captain Djindjic so that his mission and direction were discredited.

Djindjic of course realised what was going on, but he had a hard choice. Should he wage debilitating hand-to-hand combat with these villains deep in the dark bowels of the ship? Or better to get on with trying to steer the ship somewhere better, while preparing to go below deck and sort out the worst gangsters out when the time was right?

Djindjic chose the latter course. And underestimated the wickedness of his enemies.

Hence Serbia’s continuing misery today.

Back in Zimbabwe, the ruling elite must be getting nervous. Stay and fight? Cut and run? Who is likely to do what? That Mugabe is old and losing it. But who dares grab him and head for the side of the ship?

Who heaves whom overboard first?