Will Hutton – Fisked!

Let’s look a bit more closely at Will Hutton’s arguments on the EU Treaty as published yesterday in the Observer.

He denounces ‘Eurosceptic’ celebrations at the Irish vote as a farrago of lies and disinformation.

OK. Let’s proceed. WH v CC.

WH: The reality is that Ireland’s ‘no’ voters have trashed an EU that is precious but weak.

CC:  No. The EU is untrashed, still as precious as ever and impressively strong – has anyone seen the Euro v Dollar rate recently?

WH:  Most ‘no’ voters, grabbing on to the worst fear rather than reasoned fact, have unknowingly set in train a political dynamic that, unless carefully handled, could lead not just to Ireland but Britain leaving the EU. Everybody will be the poorer.

CC:  Actually the Treaty for the first time established a procedure to let a disgruntled member state leave. That hope has been dashed by the Irish rejection of the Treaty, a cunning ploy by the Europhiles to keep everyone trapped in the EU. Curses! And if some member states did leave, would they really be poorer?

WH:  Such is the flaw of referendums as a means to practise reasoned democratic decision-making that the only way voters will come to realise that the sceptics are wrong is to be forced to live through the consequences of their vote.

CC:  Fair enough. The Irish will do so. Likely negative consequences? Nil.

WH:  For although the first reaction in Ireland, Brussels and the rest of the European Union has been to say that the will of Ireland’s voters must be respected, the wider political logic is that Irish voters are in effect saying no to the European Union …

CC:  No they’re not. ‘In effect’ and more importantly in real life they’re saying they like this EU, not the one proposed.

WH:  … a will that can only be respected by other states freezing their ambitions.

CC:  True, sort of. But in the EU rules the Irish were made to sign up to when they joined, it explicitly states that all have to agree on how future ambitions are agreed in legal form. The Irish do not agree. So no such ambitions! That’s the precious EU way. Or is the suggestion that the existing Treaty rules should be broken? In which case, why sign up to new Treaty rules which in turn will be worthless?

WH:  Ireland’s voters have primed a bomb.

CC:  Or a damp squib?

WH:  Eighteen states have already ratified the treaty, some for the second time.

CC:  Huh?! Are you saying that the British Government have been lying? That this Lisbon Treaty is the same treaty as the previous one thrown out by the French and Dutch referenda? Gotcha!

WH:  The first reaction of José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, was to ask the last eight member states, Britain included, to proceed with ratification. Gordon Brown has agreed; the final reading is on Wednesday and to stop the process because of the Irish vote would be unreasonable.

CC:  Or maybe it’s unreasonable to expect the UK Parliament to ratify a Dead Parrot?

WH:  So the EU on 1 January 2009 will have a treaty that 26 states have ratified – but not the Irish.

CC:  Hmm. Ratification enthusiasm might dwindle somewhat between now and then?

WH:  What can’t happen is that the treaty is scrapped, rewritten to accommodate changes to meet the will of Ireland’s voters and then re-ratified in 27 countries. There are the practical questions of time and expense and there is no political readiness in the other 26 capitals to go through the whole interminable process again.

CC:  Indeed so.

WH:  On top of these there is the political problem that the treaty can’t be rewritten to accommodate specific Irish concerns because it already does; Ireland’s ‘no’ campaigners told lies. The voters’ great concerns had been met. There is a specific protocol that guarantees Ireland’s neutrality and excuses it from membership of any joint European defence effort, if any surfaces. There is no possibility of Ireland being told to enforce abortion.

CC:  A core point here folks, one which bothers the Poles too. Is it true that Ireland can not be told to ‘enforce abortion’? What if one day one a European Court proclaims that member state laws limiting abortion are against a woman’s ‘right to choose’ as per various emerging European human rights provisons individually and collectively? The dark secret at the heart of all the EU’s development is that the European Court of Justice interprets and therefore trumps all, however ingeniously state-level drafters try to exclude it.

WH:  And all states have autonomy over tax policy.

CC:  Ditto. What if the European Court strikes down member states’ individual tax policies as inconsistent with the spirit and practice of EU integration? HMG lawyers sweat profusely over this possibility…

WH:  Crucially, the treaty contains a clause that states that do not agree to its provisions are required to leave the European Union.

CC:  Where? See the FCO Guidance: "The Treaty recognises a Member State’s right to withdraw from the European Union and sets out procedures providing for such an eventuality." Do you mean Treaty Article 49A: "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements."? Not the same as being required to leave?

WH:  The EU will have to get tough and invoke the clause. It will have to ask Ireland to resubmit essentially the same treaty for a second referendum early in 2009, rather as Ireland held a second referendum over the Nice treaty in 2002. If Ireland votes similarly again, then it will have to accept associate status in the EU and not be a member of its governing structures. The EU will proceed without Ireland.

CC:  Actually, even if this clause does exist somewhere it can not be invoked, since the Irish have not ratified the Treaty, so the Treaty (with the clause) is not in force! Hoopla! Does anyone in their right mind think that Ireland will go for – or can be made to go for – a second Referendum? Why did we not lean on France and Netherlands to do that first time round?

WH:  Irish and British Eurosceptics, in close alliance, will react in fury. I can see it now. This will be proof-positive of the Brussels elite’s malevolence and anti-democratic intent. David Cameron’s Tory party will say that Ireland is being treated disgracefully. I don’t see how Cameron will be able to avoid a pledge to give British voters the same chance for a referendum on the treaty as the Irish, not least to strengthen the hand of the Irish ‘no’ campaigners in their second referendum.

CC:  Nor do I. But why is this further UK referendum meant to be bad? How many more No votes do you need before it sinks in that these changes are unpopular all over the place?

WH:  Battle is going to be joined in earnest because it must. Pro-Europeans everywhere must engage. We need this Europe – to fight climate change, to ensure security of energy and food, to underwrite our prosperity and to fight for our common interests.

CC:  Quite right. If only we had more CAP, more ill-conceived Kyoto Protocol ideas and more EU regulation, all would be well.

WH:  The world needs it too. The EU is the citizens’ friend. If it did not exist, Europe would have to invent something similar.

CC:  Yes! Something similar. But not necessarily identical. And maybe what we have now is friendly enough anyway?

WH (crescendo):  Maybe pro-Europeans can win Ireland’s second referendum and then, in 2010 or 2011, our own. But referendums work best for the demagogue, the dissimulator and scaremonger, as Hitler and Mussolini, lovers of referendums, proved. Increasingly, Ireland and Britain are heading for the European exit and that could portend further break-up of the Union. Pro-Europeans look out.

CC:  Puh-leese. Not the H&M words! We once had a referendum to confirm our own EU membership in a genteel unHitlerian way. The EU is not going to break up, precisely because so many member states including Ireland do very well enough out of it.

This whole business reminds me of an old joke:

A man walks down the road with a banana in each ear.

Kid: "Hey mister, why do you have bananas in your ears?"

Man: (Removing one banana) "Sorry, I can’t hear because I have bananas in my ears."

Ireland has asked the EU to take the bananas out of its ears. Not such a bad idea?