Back from Brussels, hearing lots of theories about whether the Lisbon Treaty is dead, alive or in some sort of suspended animation.

The core options appear to be these:

  • brutalise/bribe the Irish into submitting mainly via various ‘Declarations’ aimed at meeting most of their identifiable concerns, allowing a further and this time successful Yes referendum in Ireland next year. Ideal outcome for Europhiles, but High Risk.
  • let the Treaty die and soldier on as now. Embarrassing, but Low Risk. Some (France) will try to use this to block enlargement across the board. Germany may support shutting the door but only if Croatia is let in quickly. Others (Poles, Czechs, UK) likely to be deeply unimpressed with such cynicism – and what does the EU do with the non-EU Balkan Black Hole within its own geographical space? Madness to say that those 20 million people can not join a Union of 500 million?
  • try to bring in via cherry-picking those parts of the Treaty which can be effected without a full-blown new Treaty. Unglamorous and Unedifying, seen as Undemocratic, Lowish Risk

France faces the unenviable task of trying to pick a way forward through its coming Presidency on the basis of some sort of reasonable consensus.

To be continued.