As the European Parliament elections loom, the sheer horror of the Conservative Party’s idea of leaving the ‘mainstream’ EPP party bloc comes to the fore.

I have written about this here.

But behold now this onslaught from Tory Grandees, no less. The Independent is scurrying to catch up.

The argument goes that if the Conservatives pull out of this EP bloc all sorts of horrible things will happen, made all the worse by Conservative intentions to Do Something about the Lisbon Treaty.

Much of the portentous warnings about the UK calling into question the Lisbon Treaty seem to miss one significant point, namely that the Treaty is not in effect until everyone has ratified it finally.

So a referendum could be called in the UK before that happens, if only to give a probably huge political mandate to a new British government and future governments to oppose further federalistic integration. And if a massive No vote in the UK by some chance deterred others from finally ratifying the Treaty, the result appears to equal … no Treaty.

What is intereresting about these articles is that they have literally not a single word on why this Conservative move might be a good or at least popular idea.

Nothing on the way the EP works. Nothing on the advantages of having in the EP a sizeable new bloc with different views about the European future. Nothing about how in practice that bloc might be effective by using its voting weight well. Nothing on the odious people represented in the current EPP bloc or in the bloc hosting Labour MEPs.

Nothing!

For that we have to look to an MEP, Dan Hannan. Here. And (in more detailed form) here:

At present, every political alliance in Europe – the Communists, the Socialists, the Liberals, the Greens, the Christian Democrats – supports the euro, the constitution, a common foreign policy and an EU criminal justice system.

Indeed, the EPP goes further than the others, demanding a single EU seat at the United Nations, a European army and police force and – my particular favourite, this – a pan-EU income tax to be levied by MEPs.

Once there is a mainstream conservative bloc positing a different kind of Europe, the cartel will be broken. From that moment, Euro-federalism will cease to be inevitable, and become one among a series of competing ideas. 

As almost none of those policies is popular with UK voters, why stay in that club? Maybe an argument worth at least a word by one or other Tory Grandee?

These Grandees are supported by a couple of FCO Grandees in the form of two former Permanent Under-Secretaries (ie top FCO officials), Lord Kerr and Lord Wright. (Note: all these people quoted are Lords, ie no-one needing to get out there and win votes from taxpayers.)

Lord Kerr:

"I do not understand a rigid commitment to impotence," he said. "I do not understand why [the Czech and Polish parties who will form a new group with the Tories] are preferable to Angela Merkel or Nicolas Sarkozy, or why they think the route to influence lies that way …

The Tories owe it to us to tell us what they mean, because they will have to tell the world at the end of the first European council they attend, when they discover there is no majority for calling the intergovernmental conference to change the treaty as they propose."

That last point is a sound one. If there is no heavyweight EU support for reopening the Treaty (and there won’t be, for all sorts of reasons) does David Cameron meekly back down? Or try to force the issue by increasing the cost to his partners of not looking at this question, in part through escalating UK obstinacy?

In other words: Foreign Office concern that Cameron will trigger the worst crisis yet in Britain’s relations with the EU

What is studiously ignored by almost everyone opining on this subject is that in fact it is all mainly about one thing.

Money.

Who gives. And who gets/

The UK is a generous net contributor to the EU pot. Should we carry on paying generously for policies and institutions we dislike? Is the price of ‘European solidarity’ and the inexorable ‘further and deeper integration’ demanded by eg the EPP too high for UK taxpayers to accept?

The best way to force change in the EU is to cut the Budget. Tony Blair blinked on that in 2005. When the next Financial Perspective negotiation comes round in a couple of years’ time, the next UK government will be facing grim public finance constraints at home, so enthusiasm for spending more at the EU level will be zero.

That is where the main battle will come. And, as before, the UK will be ‘isolated’.

For the simple reason that there are far more EU Getters than Givers. The Getters gracelessly line up to whinge that the Givers are being mean.

Not a situation likely to impress UK voters, mopping up the mess created by years of British and EU-level collectivist profligacy.

So is signalling now heartfelt dissatisfaction with all this a bad negotiating tactic for Cameron Conservatives, even if lots of people grown plump on EU processes are predictably rattled? Not obviously.

Another point on which all those Grandees and ex-PUSs seem oddly … silent?