Over at Commentator I gallop through some of the issues arising from the splitting-up of countries, drawing on the examples of the collapse of the USSR and SFRY, and seeing how far they apply to Scotland.

The division of Czechoslovakia into two units might well be more relevant, as a commenter fairly points out. But I haven’t followed that one personally, so do not feel qualified to say much about it.

One point I did not mention is the radical impact Scottish independence might have on all sorts of other separatist causes . The United Kingdom is seen round the world as a country which for all its annoying post-imperial pretensions has achieved incredible results through its long, stable democratic traditions. The eventual example of Scotland breaking away (albeit under closely negotiated terms) might well embolden others to say that if it’s OK for areas to break away even from the best-run democracies, it’s surely OK to demand separation from less than well-run democracies.

Plenty for the next leadership in Moscow to think about in that sense – across Russia’s vast time-zones are plenty of territories itching to have a lot more say in their own affairs. Republika Srpska? Any number of places in Africa? Certain other EU countries? 

In other words, Scotland v UK is just another example of the wider phenomenon of institutions created in very different times no longer seeming fit for purpose and yielding to a highly focused democratic impulse for complete change. That the new institutions might not be much better in any particular respect (and that the opportunity cost of setting them up could be incredibly high) is not necessarily going to stop people insisting on them.